Market Trends

14 Feb 2026
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In a significant development that will impact millions of Indian homebuyers and existing borrowers, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% from 6.50% on February 6, 2026. This marks the third consecutive rate hike in six months, signaling the central bank's aggressive stance against persistent inflation.
The immediate fallout: Major banks have responded by increasing their Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rates (MCLR) by 15-30 basis points, making home loans significantly more expensive for borrowers across the country.
Key Highlights:
✅ RBI repo rate increased to 6.75% (up from 6.50%) ✅ Banks hiked MCLR by 15-30 basis points in response ✅ Home loan EMIs to increase by ₹650-₹1,000 per month for typical borrowers ✅ Over 60% of outstanding home loans are MCLR-linked (affected immediately) ✅ Additional interest burden: ₹1.5-3.5 lakh over loan lifetime ✅ Budget 2026 offered no relief - tax benefits remain unchanged ✅ Housing market demand expected to slow by 10-15%
Repo Rate (Repurchase Rate) is the interest rate at which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lends short-term money to commercial banks. It is the most powerful monetary policy tool used by the RBI to control inflation, liquidity, and economic growth.
| Date | Repo Rate | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | 6.75% | +25 bps | Persistent inflation at 5.8% |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 6.50% | +25 bps | Food inflation concerns |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 6.25% | +25 bps | Core inflation above target |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 6.00% | No change | Monitoring inflation |
| Jun 7, 2025 | 6.00% | No change | Stable inflation |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 6.00% | -25 bps | Supporting growth |
Total Increase in Last 6 Months: 75 basis points (0.75%)
MCLR (Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate) is the minimum interest rate below which a bank cannot lend. It replaced the older Base Rate system in April 2016 to ensure faster and more transparent transmission of RBI's policy rate changes to borrowers.
Marginal Cost of Funds (85-90% weightage):
Negative Carry on CRR (5-10% weightage):
Operating Costs (3-5% weightage):
Tenure Premium (2-5% weightage):
| MCLR Type | Reset Frequency | Typical Use |
|---|---|---|
| Overnight MCLR | Daily | Interbank lending |
| 1-Month MCLR | Monthly | Working capital loans |
| 3-Month MCLR | Quarterly | Short-term business loans |
| 6-Month MCLR | Half-yearly | Medium-term loans |
| 1-Year MCLR | Annually | Home loans (most common) |
| 2-Year MCLR | Every 2 years | Long-term loans |
| 3-Year MCLR | Every 3 years | Very long-term loans |
How Your Home Loan Rate is Calculated:
Your Interest Rate = MCLR + Spread
Step-by-Step Transmission Mechanism:
| Event | Timeline | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| RBI announces repo rate hike | Day 0 | Immediate market reaction |
| Banks announce MCLR revision | Day 3–7 | New MCLR effective |
| MCLR-linked loans reset | Next reset date (varies) | EMI increases |
| Full transmission complete | 3–6 months | All loans affected |
Meeting Date: February 4-6, 2026 Announcement: February 6, 2026, 10:00 AM
Key Decisions:
MPC Voting Pattern:
Primary Reasons Cited by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
Inflation Breakdown
The Monetary Policy Committee notes that inflation has remained persistently above the target of 4% for the past six months. While growth remains robust, upside risks to inflation from food prices, imported energy costs, and strong domestic demand necessitate a calibrated withdrawal of accommodation. The 25 basis point increase in the repo rate is a measured step to anchor inflation expectations and ensure price stability, which is essential for sustainable growth.The Monetary Policy Committee notes that inflation has remained persistently above the target of 4% for the past six months. While growth remains robust, upside risks to inflation from food prices, imported energy costs, and strong domestic demand necessitate a calibrated withdrawal of accommodation. The 25 basis point increase in the repo rate is a measured step to anchor inflation expectations and ensure price stability, which is essential for sustainable growth.
We remain vigilant and data-dependent. Future policy actions will be guided by evolving macroeconomic conditions, particularly the inflation trajectory and global developments.
Mixed reaction
Public Sector Banks
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight | 8.20% | 8.35% | +15 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
| 1-Month | 8.30% | 8.45% | +15 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
| 3-Month | 8.40% | 8.55% | +15 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
| 6-Month | 8.45% | 8.60% | +15 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
| 1-Year | 8.45% | 8.60% | +15 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
| 2-Year | 8.55% | 8.70% | +15 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
| 3-Year | 8.65% | 8.80% | +15 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.40% | 8.65% | +25 bps | Feb 12, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact:
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.35% | 8.55% | +20 bps | Feb 11, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact:
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.40% | 8.60% | +20 bps | Feb 13, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.45% | 8.65% | +20 bps | Feb 12, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.50% | 8.70% | +20 bps | Feb 14, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.60% | 8.85% | +25 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
Reason for Higher Hike: HDFC Bank cited "significantly higher deposit costs and liquidity pressures" as reasons for the 25 bps increase, higher than most peers.
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.50% | 8.70% | +20 bps | Feb 11, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.55% | 8.75% | +20 bps | Feb 12, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.65% | 8.95% | +30 bps | Feb 10, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
Reason for Highest Hike: Kotak cited "aggressive deposit mobilization strategy and higher cost of funds" for the 30 bps increase.
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.70% | 8.95% | +25 bps | Feb 13, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
| MCLR Tenure | Pre-Hike Rate | Post-Hike Rate | Increase | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year | 8.75% | 9.00% | +25 bps | Feb 14, 2026 |
Home Loan Rate Impact
High Impact Borrowers (₹1,500+ monthly increase):
Moderate Impact Borrowers (₹600-₹1,500 monthly increase):
Low Impact Borrowers (< ₹600 monthly increase):
Repo-Linked Lending Rate (RLLR) or External Benchmark Lending Rate (EBLR) loans are directly linked to RBI's repo rate instead of bank's internal MCLR.
How RLLR Works:
Your Interest Rate = Repo Rate + Spread
Key Difference from MCLR
| Feature | MCLR-Linked Loans | Repo-Linked Loans (RLLR) |
|---|---|---|
| Current Benchmark | 8.60% - 9.00% (varies by bank) | 6.75% (RBI repo rate) |
| Typical Spread | 0.20% - 0.60% | 1.75% - 2.50% |
| Total Rate Range | 8.80% - 9.60% | 8.50% - 9.25% |
| Reset Frequency | 6-12 months (annual most common) | Quarterly (3 months) |
| Recent Change | +15 to +30 bps (Feb 2026) | +25 bps (Feb 2026) |
| Transmission Speed | Slow (6-12 months lag) | Fast (within 3 months) |
| Transparency | Less transparent | Highly transparent |
| Rate Stability | More stable | More volatile |
| Benefit in Falling Rates | Delayed (6-12 months) | Immediate (3 months) |
| Impact in Rising Rates | Delayed (6-12 months) | Immediate (3 months) |
| Bank | MCLR-Linked Rate | RLLR Rate | Difference | Better Option |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBI | 8.85% - 9.25% | 8.50% - 8.90% | RLLR lower by 35 bps | RLLR |
| HDFC Bank | 9.10% - 9.50% | 8.75% - 9.15% | RLLR lower by 35 bps | RLLR |
| ICICI Bank | 8.95% - 9.35% | 8.60% - 9.00% | RLLR lower by 35 bps | RLLR |
| Axis Bank | 9.00% - 9.40% | 8.65% - 9.05% | RLLR lower by 35 bps | RLLR |
| PNB | 8.90% - 9.30% | 8.55% - 8.95% | RLLR lower by 35 bps | RLLR |
| Bank of Baroda | 8.80% - 9.20% | 8.50% - 8.90% | RLLR lower by 30 bps | RLLR |
Current Verdict: RLLR loans are 30-40 basis points cheaper than MCLR loans across all major banks.
Choose MCLR-Linked Loan If:
✅ You expect RBI to hike repo rate further (rising rate environment) ✅ You prefer rate stability and predictable EMIs ✅ You have long reset period (2-3 years) locked in ✅ Your bank offers significantly lower MCLR spread ✅ You're risk-averse and don't want frequent EMI changes
Choose RLLR (Repo-Linked) Loan If:
✅ You expect RBI to cut repo rate in future (falling rate environment) ✅ You want transparency in rate calculation ✅ You want to benefit quickly from rate cuts ✅ Current RLLR rate is lower than MCLR rate (as of Feb 2026) ✅ You can handle quarterly EMI fluctuations
RLLR is better for most borrowers because:
However, if you believe:
Then MCLR with a longer reset period (2-3 years) might be better to lock current rates.
| Bank | Conversion Fee | Processing Time |
|---|---|---|
| SBI | Free | 7–10 days |
| HDFC Bank | 0.25% of outstanding (min ₹5,000) | 10–15 days |
| ICICI Bank | Free | 7–10 days |
| Axis Bank | 0.50% of outstanding (max ₹10,000) | 10–15 days |
| PNB | Free | 7–10 days |
| Bank of Baroda | Free | 7–10 days |
Break-Even Analysis
If conversion fee is ₹10,000 and monthly savings is ₹1,000:
Recommendation: Even with conversion fee, switching to RLLR makes sense if remaining tenure > 5 years.
Positive Announcements:
Beneficiaries
Subsidy: Interest subsidy up to ₹2.67 lakh on home loans Impact: More affordable housing supply, but demand-side incentives missing
Features
Features
Focus Areas
Metro Projects
Impact: Indirect boost to real estate demand in these cities
Reason for Demand:
Impact of No Change:
Current Benefit: Additional ₹1.5 lakh interest deduction for first-time buyers Eligibility Criteria (Unchanged):
Stamp value ≤ ₹45 lakh (outdated in most cities)
Carpet area ≤ 60 sqm (metro) or 90 sqm (non-metro)
First-time homebuyer
Loan from bank/HFC
Industry Demand:
Current Reality:
Potential Impact if Announced:
Current Scenario:
Industry Demand:
Impact of No Change:
Industry Demand:
Impact:
Current Definition (Outdated):
Industry Demand (CREDAI):
Current Reality:
Impact of No Change:
Industry Demand (CREDAI):
Especially beneficial for:
Not Announced: Missed opportunity
Growing Rental Demand:
Industry Demand:
Not Announced: Rental housing remains neglected
Under Old Tax Regime (Recommended for Homeowners):
Condition:
Pre-Construction Interest:
Overall 80C Limit: ₹1.5 lakh (shared with PPF, ELSS, LIC, etc.) Lock-in: Cannot claim if property sold within 5 years
Tax Saving: ₹45,000 per year (30% bracket) or ₹9 lakh over 20 years
Conditions:
Calculation:
Comparison:
| Benefit | Old Tax Regime | New Tax Regime |
|---|---|---|
| Section 24(b) Interest | ✅ Up to ₹2 lakh | ❌ Not available |
| Section 80C Principal | ✅ Up to ₹1.5 lakh | ❌ Not available |
| Section 80EEA | ✅ Up to ₹1.5 lakh | ❌ Not available |
| Section 80EE | ✅ Up to ₹50,000 | ❌ Not available |
| Total Max Deduction | ₹5 lakh | ₹0 |
| Tax Saving (30% bracket) | ₹1.5 lakh/year | ₹0 |
| Standard Deduction | ₹50,000 | ₹75,000 |
| Tax-Free Income | ₹2.5 lakh | ₹3 lakh (₹12 lakh with all deductions) |
Budget 2026 is a major disappointment for the real estate sector and homebuyers. While we appreciate the increased allocation to PMAY, the absence of demand-side incentives is glaring. The affordable housing definition is outdated, Section 24(b) limit hasn't been revised in 12 years despite 100% increase in property prices, and there's no relief on GST or stamp duty. We will continue to push for a new affordable housing definition without price caps, credit guarantee schemes for buyers, and interest subvention for first-time homebuyers.
Key Demands:
The Budget has missed a golden opportunity to revive housing demand. With repo rate hikes and MCLR increases making home loans expensive, the government should have provided tax relief to homebuyers. The absence of interest stimulants for buyers and developers will impact demand, especially in the affordable and mid-segment. We expect a 10-15% slowdown in housing demand in H1 FY27 if interest rates don't stabilize. The Budget has missed a golden opportunity to revive housing demand. With repo rate hikes and MCLR increases making home loans expensive, the government should have provided tax relief to homebuyers. The absence of interest stimulants for buyers and developers will impact demand, especially in the affordable and mid-segment. We expect a 10-15% slowdown in housing demand in H1 FY27 if interest rates don't stabilize.
Key Concerns:
Key Points:
The Budget's focus on supply-side measures through PMAY is welcome, but demand-side challenges remain unaddressed. With home loan rates at 9-9.5%, affordability is a major concern. If the repo rate stabilizes at 7% by mid-2026, we may see recovery. Otherwise, expect inventory pile-ups, especially in peripheral locations of metros.
Predictions:
Key Metrics:
Reasons for Caution:
Average property price: ₹1.2 crore EMI increase: ₹2,000-₹3,500/month Demand impact: -12% expected Peripheral locations most affected
The RBI's repo rate hike to 6.75% has triggered a domino effect, with banks increasing MCLR by 15-30 basis points, making home loans significantly more expensive for millions of borrowers. Combined with Budget 2026's disappointing lack of new tax benefits, homebuyers face a challenging environment with EMIs rising by ₹650-₹2,000 monthly.
However, strategic actions can mitigate this burden: switching to repo-linked loans saves 30-40 bps immediately, aggressive prepayments of 5-10% annually reduce interest substantially, and optimizing tax deductions under the old regime saves ₹60,000-₹1.5 lakh yearly. While experts predict 1-2 more rate hikes in 2026 before stabilization, proactive borrowers who negotiate spreads, maintain excellent credit scores, and review loans annually can save lakhs over their loan tenure despite the challenging rate environment.
Banks increased MCLR because the repo rate hike directly increases their cost of funds. When RBI raises the repo rate, banks borrow money from RBI at a higher cost. Additionally, to attract deposits, banks must offer higher FD rates, further increasing their marginal cost of funds. MCLR is calculated based on these costs, so when costs increase, MCLR increases proportionally (typically 60-120% of repo rate hike).
For a typical ₹50 lakh home loan with 20-year tenure, if your bank increased MCLR by 20 basis points (from 8.50% to 8.70%), your EMI will increase by approximately ₹600-₹800 per month. The exact increase depends on your outstanding principal, remaining tenure, and the extent of MCLR hike by your specific bank (15-30 bps). Use online EMI calculators with your loan details for precise calculation.
Yes, switching to repo-linked loan (RLLR) is beneficial for most borrowers as of February 2026. RLLR rates are currently 30-40 basis points cheaper than MCLR rates (8.50%-9.25% vs 8.80%-9.60%). On a ₹50 lakh loan, this saves ₹1,000-₹2,000 per month or ₹2.4-4.8 lakh over 20 years. Most banks allow free conversion. However, RLLR is more volatile and will increase quickly if RBI hikes repo rate further.
Most experts predict 1-2 more small repo rate hikes (15-25 bps each) in 2026, likely in Q1-Q2 FY27 (April-September 2026), if inflation remains above 5.5%. However, if inflation moderates to below 5%, RBI may pause rate hikes from Q3 FY27 onwards. Rate cuts are possible in late 2026 or early 2027 if inflation falls below 4.5%. Monitor RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announcements for updates.
Repo Rate is the interest rate at which RBI lends to banks - it's set by RBI and is an external benchmark. MCLR is the minimum lending rate set by individual banks based on their internal cost of funds. Repo rate affects MCLR - when repo rate increases, banks' borrowing costs increase, leading to MCLR increase. Repo-linked loans (RLLR) are directly tied to repo rate, while MCLR-linked loans are tied to bank's internal benchmark.
No, Budget 2026 did not announce any new tax benefits for home loan borrowers. The existing benefits remain unchanged: Section 24(b) interest deduction up to ₹2 lakh, Section 80C principal deduction up to ₹1.5 lakh, and Section 80EEA additional ₹1.5 lakh for eligible first-time buyers. The industry was disappointed as they expected an increase in Section 24(b) limit to ₹4 lakh and other demand-side incentives.
No, home loan tax benefits (Section 24(b) interest deduction and Section 80C principal deduction) are NOT available under the new tax regime introduced from AY 2024-25. You must opt for the old tax regime to claim these deductions. For most homeowners, the old regime is more beneficial despite lower tax slabs in the new regime, as home loan deductions can save ₹60,000-₹1.5 lakh annually.
Top 5 strategies: (1) Switch to repo-linked loan (save 30-40 bps immediately), (2) Make annual prepayments of 5-10% of principal (saves lakhs in interest), (3) Negotiate lower spread with your bank (reduce by 10-25 bps), (4) Increase EMI by 5-10% annually (close loan 5-7 years early), (5) Optimize tax deductions by choosing old regime and joint ownership (save ₹60,000-₹1.5 lakh/year).
The current repo rate is 6.75% (as of February 6, 2026), increased by 25 basis points from 6.50%. The next RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for April 1-3, 2026, where the repo rate decision will be announced. Based on inflation trends and economic conditions at that time, RBI may hike by another 15-25 bps, maintain status quo, or (less likely) cut rates.
Joint ownership allows each co-owner to claim separate tax deductions. If you and your spouse are co-owners (50:50) and co-borrowers of a ₹80 lakh loan with ₹7 lakh annual interest, instead of one person claiming only ₹2 lakh (losing ₹5 lakh), both can claim ₹2 lakh each = total ₹4 lakh deduction. This saves an additional ₹60,000/year (30% tax bracket) or ₹12 lakh over 20 years.
It depends on your risk appetite and expected returns. Prepayment gives guaranteed returns equal to your loan interest rate (9% currently) with zero risk. Mutual funds may give 10-15% returns but with market risk and no guarantee. Conservative approach: Prepay (guaranteed 9% return). Moderate approach: 50% prepayment + 50% equity MF. Aggressive approach: Invest in equity if confident of 12%+ returns. Also consider tax benefits - prepayment reduces interest deduction.
For end-users: Q2-Q3 FY27 (July-December 2026) during festive season when developers offer discounts and EMI subventions. Also consider end of FY27 (March 2027) when developers have year-end targets. For investors: Wait for rate cuts (likely Q4 FY27 or FY28) for better financing costs. Focus on RERA-approved ready-to-move properties to avoid GST. Tier 2 cities offer better appreciation potential than saturated metros.
MCLR changes affect your EMI on your loan reset date, which is typically annual for most home loans. If your reset date is in June and the bank increases MCLR in February, your EMI will increase from June onwards, not immediately. However, for new loans, the new MCLR applies immediately. Check your loan agreement for your specific reset date. Repo-linked loans adjust faster (quarterly) compared to MCLR loans (annually).
Yes, you can negotiate the spread component of your interest rate (Rate = MCLR + Spread). Spread typically ranges from 0.15% to 0.60% based on credit score, relationship, and loan amount. How to negotiate: (1) Maintain credit score 750+, (2) Show loyalty (salary account, other products), (3) Get competitor quotes, (4) Approach relationship manager, (5) Escalate if needed. Success rate: 60-70% for existing customers, potential savings: 10-25 bps.
Missing EMI has serious consequences: (1) Late payment charges: ₹500-₹1,000 per missed EMI, (2) Penal interest: 1-2% additional on outstanding, (3) Credit score drop: 50-100 points, affecting future loans, (4) Legal notice: After 3 missed EMIs, (5) Loan recall: Bank can demand full repayment, (6) Property auction: Bank can auction property to recover dues. If facing difficulty: Contact bank immediately, request restructuring, consider moratorium options, never ignore EMIs.
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